Very low days of disposition exiting the summer; risk of critical days of disposition this winter remains high
US exports continue to remain high to Asia and the risk for low days of disposition for the US as a whole remains high. The primary reason behind the high exports are tepid Middle East exports to Asia and high naphtha to propane spreads incentivizing PDH economics in China. The high exports have stalled the required growth in PADD 3 inventory necessary to replenish inventory in the US to safe days of disposition.
Because of the record high summer exports of propane, the trend report forecasts shows that inventory on a days of disposition basis is not growing at an adequate rate to replenish stocks in PADD 3 in time for the winter months. It should be noted that this is primarily a PADD 3 phenomenon and that PADD 1 and PADD 2 inventories appear to be well stocked at the end of September.