IHS Markit now estimates first-quarter global crude oil demand fell year on year by 8 million barrels per day (MM b/d) and second-quarter demand by 20 MM b/d. Recall that IHS Markit noted in early March that first-quarter demand would be the biggest quarterly decline on record, down 3.8 MM b/d, caused by a stir at the OPEC+ meetings in Vienna. Before COVID-19, a year on year change in oil demand of 1 MM b/d was significant and any changes outside of this norm were viewed as being highly disruptive. The global crude oil system is quite agile and adaptive, and many factors come into play in relation to fundamental supply, demand, and trade.
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