EIA Petroleum Supply monthly data showed that Q1 2018 propane exports were indeed lower than Q1 2017 propane exports. In spite of this, total US inventory on a days of disposition basis is entering the summer months at levels lower than last year. Latest weekly data from the EIA shows that the pace of inventory growth is outpacing previous years and trends report forecast shows that growth in inventory (specifically in PADD 3) will help the US as a whole return to normal levels prior to the winter. Production growth should allow days of disposition to increase at a faster pace than last year during the late summer months. However, if crude prices remain high, naphtha prices in Asia follow and propane gains competitiveness as a chemical feedstock there encouraging US exports. Thus if crude prices remain elevated through the remainder of the year, exports may be higher than currently forecasted in the trend report leading to the possibility of low days of disposition again this winter. Thus far in Q2 2018, IHS Waterborne data does indicate that exports are higher than Q2 2017.
On a PADD level, PADD 2 inventory quickly recovered over the past month recovering from five year slows in May to average levels in June.